Legendary investors such as Warren Buffet have always suggested that if you can fill up a piece of paper with all the reasons to invest in a business long-term, then you’ve done enough due diligence to own a share of the business. When you look back in time, did you ever wonder what it would be like if you owned Amazon, Facebook, Google or Microsoft in its early growth years and how wealthy you could become if you bought a share of the business at an early, highly discounted price? For my wife and I, we see the same opportunity to be in Tesla, Inc. Below, please find our top reasons for why we believe TSLA stock will outperform the market and why we are long-term investors:
Products
1. Diverse portfolio of electric vehicles (e.g., Model S, 3, X, Y) and clean energy products (e.g., solar roof, solar panels) across all types of customers
2. Robust product roadmap (e.g., semis, cyber-truck, $25K EV car) and the potential opportunity for commercial robots!
3. Continuous product improvement (e.g., over the air software updates) with existing products & the opportunity to earn income on robo-taxis (when available)
Technology & IP
4. Unmatched R&D and application of disruptive technologies (AI, automation, battery technology) across all of Tesla’s operations
5. Vertical integration, automation & optimization of manufacturing and supply chain operations
6. Most extensive and reliable charging network infrastructure in terms of technology and footprint globally
Competitive Advantage
7. Leader in electric vehicles and sustainable energy with at least 3-5 years ahead of competition with emerging EV competitors not yet proving they can manufacturer EVs at scale without going bankrupt
8. Singular focus on product & engineering to rapidly innovate and create advanced products and customer experiences
9. Direct to consumer (B2C) business model strengthens brand loyalty, acquire customer insights and keep costs low
10. Strong market pricing power with customers due to continued strong demand for high quality, premium products
11. Passionate and fiercely loyal brand ambassadors (e.g., similar to Apple), especially those with automotive industry credibility in product and engineering expertise (e.g. Sandy Munro from Munro Associates)
12. Supply chain leverage and long-term multi-year contracts with suppliers motivates them to prioritize Tesla’s orders over competitors
13. TSLA is expanding its market leadership not only in the US but also other key countries (e.g., China, Norway)
14. Global macroeconomic tailwinds support electrification and climate change will largely benefit TSLA in legislation & tax credits, further extending its leadership
Management Team
15. Visionary CEO and excellent management team with a proven track record of superb execution and ability to scale (~average 50% CAGR)
16. World-class engineering talent that enables it to quickly adapt to challenging conditions (e.g., designing its own chips due to supply chain issues) not only from TSLA but also Elon’s other companies and his network (e.g., SpaceX, Twitter, Boring Company, Neuralink)
17. CEO makes bold bets and decisions for sustainable long-term growth not just to appease short-term investor earnings calls
18. Performance-driven organization with aligned incentives (e.g., financially motivated employees)
Financials & Business Models
19. Consistently strong financials and industry leading profitability vs. other automakers–more akin to software companies
20. Highly profitable business models and recurring revenues from full-self driving and car insurance features
21. Significantly high profit margins from add-on subscriptions per car allow for Tesla to discount prices to undercut competitors when needed
22. Ancillary business models (e.g., solar, electric power, autonomous vehicles/robo-taxis) will likely contribute significant value over time
23. Early innings of their S-curve and production growth trajectory as they build more Gigafactories and optimize their supply chain
24. Strong demand backlog for Tesla products with revenue only constrained by production capacity, especially after recent price reductions
25. Traditional large cap growth stocks are now more mature companies and don’t have the forward-looking growth of TSLA
Not everyone is bullish on TSLA and of course there are risks to investing in Tesla primarily key man risk with Elon, but we believe that despite the short-term volatility, this remains the best risk-adjusted return to double our money over the next 5-7 years. Some TSLA bulls, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest even believe it can grow by 675% in this timeframe. Since being included into the S&P 500 in December 2020, Tesla is now #6 in market capitalization at ~$600B (as of Feb 3, 2023), which can be viewed as the 6th most valued company in the US. Please note that we have 5% of our investment portfolio in TSLA with the remainder still in S&P 500 ETFs, dividend ETFs and bonds.
There are several growth and technology stocks that have been hit hard in 2022 and 2023 Q1. Where do you consider the “smart money” to be in getting the best risk-return for capital allocated? If you are also a TSLA investor, please let me know what other points you would suggest including.
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